2-1 Record Storm: July's Category 5 Mystery

In the last few days of June, scientists noticed a tropical storm brewing in the Atlantic; they called it Barrel, and in just a couple of days, they watched as it transformed into a monstrous Category 4 hurricane. [ 00:00:07 ]

Here's a view of pilots flying directly inside Barrel as it began breaking records, and it actually looks pretty serene here in the eye of the storm. But inside those walls, you see on the sides, it's total chaos: massive thunderstorms, heavy rains and violent winds thrashing over 200 km an hour. This is the earliest Category 4 hurricane that we have ever had in the Atlantic, the strongest hurricane on record in the month of June. These were just the first records Barrel would break as it passed through the Caribbean on to Mexico and into the US. This hulking storm smashed expectations almost every step of the way. Let's go through why scientists say Barrel is rewriting history and why it's making them anxious for what's to come. [ 00:01:04 ]

Typically, we don't see hurricanes as powerful as Barrel until early September. That's because the ocean tends to be cooler this early in the summer, making it less likely for hurricanes to thrive. But this year, the waters in the Atlantic were unusually warm, so it may be June or July on the calendar, but a hurricane doesn't know what time of year it is. All it knows is what's in front of it. All the ingredients have been there, and unfortunately, Barrel rapidly intensified and became a very dangerous storm almost overnight. [ 00:01:28 ]

That factor, just how quickly Barrel went from zero to 100, also broke records. According to experts, rapid intensification happens when the wind speed of a storm increases at least 50 km an hour in 24 hours. In less than 2 days, Barrel's wind speed shot up more than 150 km an hour. In fact, Barrel intensified faster than any hurricane has ever done before September. [ 00:02:01 ]

Most people in the hurricane science field found Barrel's intensification quite shocking. We had expected Barrel to intensify somewhat, but I think it really went a lot further than pretty much anybody or any computer model was projecting that it would. That combination, how early Barrel was and how quickly it picked up steam, meant all the islands in its path had very little time to prepare. [ 00:02:23 ]

In Barbados, boats were piled up on top of each other, carried inland by wind and storm surges. In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials say 90% of the houses were either destroyed or severely damaged. Maybe the hardest hit, though, was Grenada. Barrel made landfall on one of its islands called Carriacou, hitting it dead on with winds reaching 240 km an hour. Those winds ripped doors, windows and roofs off of homes, snapped trees in half and in some areas, flattened entire buildings. The situation is grim, there is no power, and there's almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. Initial reports for the cost of the damage in this part of the Caribbean are over a billion. At least 11 people were killed. [ 00:03:14 ]

This is my room. Tammy Duncan touring what's left of her home in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, her roof gone. While all of this was happening, Barrel kept breaking records, becoming a Category 5, the strongest type of hurricane there is, earlier than any other storm in the Atlantic on record. The hurricane hunters out there all evening, finding the data to support bumping this up to Category 5. It is very rare for this to happen. The previous record was Hurricane Emily in mid-July of 2005. So we've really shattered that record and it just kept going. Only 11 hurricanes in the satellite era have maintained such a long period of category four or five winds and none of those came before August—yet another record smashed. It's certainly fair to say that Barrel is rewriting the record books. [ 00:04:03 ]

After almost 3 days, Barrel finally started to weaken as it moved towards Jamaica and eventually Mexico, but not enough to spare those areas from its wrath. Wind, rain, flooding, the roof was blown off on top of that building right there. More than half, 60% of this island is without electricity right now. On Monday, it made landfall again in the US, hitting Texas with winds over 120 kmph, whipping up dangerous storm surges and flash flooding through the entire eastern part of the state. There is the up close, he's got the life jacket on and they are lifting him out of the water. Look at that current. Power outages in the Houston area, 2.1 million Centerpoint customers impacted. [ 00:04:58 ]

For scientists, Barrel isn't just worrying because of how destructive it's been. It's also seen as an omen for what's to come. The last time a Category 5 hurricane took shape in July was in 2005, one of the deadliest hurricane seasons on record. You might remember that was the year of Dennis, Rita, Wilma and Katrina. When Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, entire neighborhoods vanished under 20 ft of water. 2005 is a season that we think back to as the last real big one. It is an alarming comparison, but it's not an unfair comparison to make because the sea surface temperatures in 2005 in these regions were significantly above normal, just as they are today. It's something that's a real eye opener for what's in the realm of the possible. [ 00:05:45 ]

Even before Barrel arrived, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA forecasted an unusually bad season, that we could actually see the highest number of storms ever with as many as seven becoming category three or stronger hurricanes. Normally, there's about three. I would not be surprised at all if it turned out to be the most active season ever. You know, now that we know that an event like this has happened, that certainly raises the confidence in that forecast being correct. [ 00:06:21 ]

But it's not just the number of hurricanes or even how strong they could become that's worrying. It's that Barrel proved just how fast a storm can evolve. If you go to bed and a storm is a Category 1 and you wake up and it's a Category 4, you would have been helped to have had that predicted for you, right? Because you might have not gone to bed, you might have gotten up and boarded up the doors or whatever remedial action you could have taken. So while Barrel's record-breaking intensity was extremely destructive, the focus for scientists now is to figure out how it was able to catch them so off guard. [ 00:06:53 ]

Here's part of how they're going to do that. Remember this view from inside Hurricane Barrel? There are multiple planes doing this with radar systems on their bellies and tails that scientists use to create 3D images of the storm. This is critical data to help scientists figure out how Barrel got so bad so fast and what that means for future storms. It gives them, you know, the real world data that they need to make an accurate guess of what's going on in the atmosphere and then take the best guess that you can make with time going forward as to what's going to happen given those inputs. The goal here is to help us all better prepare not just for the next monster hurricane, but for a season full of them. [ 00:07:46 ]